Analysis of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Passenger Transport Sector in Ecuador

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.70929/caui3.v1i2.0014

Keywords:

Consumo energético, emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, LEAP, proyección, regresión lineal, mitigación

Abstract

This study evaluates energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in passenger transport in Ecuador. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software was employed exclusively as a modeling tool to simulate future scenarios based on data such as population, GDP, and the number of registered vehicles. The general results indicate that by 2040, total energy demand is projected to reach approximately 38 million barrels of oil equivalent (BEP), with the individual transport subsector (cars, SUVs, and motorcycles) accounting for over 80% of total energy consumption. Projected total emissions for the same year amount to 8,450 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2-eq), with carbon dioxide representing more than 95% of total emissions. Furthermore, the findings highlight Ecuador’s strong reliance on fossil fuels, which poses significant challenges for sustainability and the energy transition.

Author Biographies

  • Maria Tuarez-Torres, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador

    Industrial Engineer from the Universidad de Guayaquil, Ecuador (2025).

  • Pedro Castro Verdezoto, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador

    Research Professor at the Universidad de Guayaquil, specializing in energy planning.

  • Jefferson Avilés, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador

    Industrial Engineer from the University of Guayaquil, Ecuador (2025).

  • Cristhian Piza, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador

    Industrial Engineer from the University of Guayaquil, Ecuador (2025).

  • Alex Cabrera, Ministerio de Educación del Ecuador

    Alex Cabrera Hungria is a professional accountant with more than 20 years of experience in finance and education. Since 2015, he has worked as a high school teacher in Guayaquil, Ecuador, specializing in accounting and business education. He holds a Master’s degree in Education with a focus on Teaching and Research, which has strengthened his academic profile and enabled him to participate in projects that bridge pedagogy, financial literacy, and applied research.

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Published

2025-07-18

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025): Ciencia al Servicio de la Sociedad

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Research Paper

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How to Cite

[1]
M. Tuarez-Torres, P. . Castro Verdezoto, J. Avilés, C. . Piza, and A. . Cabrera, “Analysis of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Passenger Transport Sector in Ecuador”, Revista Digital Científica Causalidad (caui3), vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 34–45, Jul. 2025, doi: 10.70929/caui3.v1i2.0014.